#CERCAtheVote Prompt of the Week
Nate Silver is the most well-known and well-regarded statistician when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes. He rose to prominence in 2008 when he accurately predicted 49 of 50 states’ election outcomes and was named one of TIME‘s most influential people. In 2010, his blog was incorporated into The New York Times, and in 2012 he correctly predicted all 50 states’ votes in the presidential election. The following year, he left the Times to focus on FiveThirtyEight, a data-driven journalism site with sections dedicated to politics, sports, and culture.
Recently, Silver has been in the news for predicting that Donald Trump has a 1-in-3 chance of winning the general election, despite many other respectable polling sites giving Trump only about a 10-15% chance of winning. This has caused some journalists to accuse Silver of skewing polls to favor Trump or overcompensating for predicting early on that Trump would not become the Republican nominee.
The weekend before the election, Silver took to Twitter to respond to his critics and defend the 1-in-3 odds. What do your students think? Does Silver’s claim that Trump has a shot at wining the presidency hold up?
Featured Lessons on the 2016 Election Issues
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